Carrefour gained 45% more new customers thanks to a bespoke ML model that predicts high-value customers


New Customer Acquisition


Cost of Customer Acquisition


LTV ROAS for new customers


Carrefour Group is a French multinational specializing in retail that now has stores in more than 30 countries reaching 104 million households across the world each year.

Carrefour Spain, the Spanish subsidiary of Carrefour Group, has more than 1.000 stores in Spain and a popular e-commerce platform selling a wide variety of products including online groceries. Carrefour has the inspiration to continue growing in the online environment by accelerating its digitization.

The Challenge

For omnichannel retail groceries, Lifetime Value (LTV) plays a key role. Measuring Customer loyalty and making marketing decisions based on LTV across channels is essential to keep on acquiring new loyal customers. One of the biggest challenges about LTV is its difficulty to include these signals in DV360 in new customer acquisition campaigns. While for returning customers historical transaction data is available for predicting future LTV, for newly acquired customers predicting LTV and using these signals for Bidding is more challenging. 

The Approach

Carrefour, In collaboration with Making Science as the Tech Partner has developed a Machine Learning model that predicts the LTV for newly acquired customers and imports the predicted LTV through Matchid. 

Making Science has developed a Custom Bidding Algorithm that leverages the Machine Learning LTV signal in Prospecting DV360 campaigns (new customer acquisition campaigns). 

Arena as the Agency and as responsible for the media activation has developed an A/B test in DV360 comparing previous Custom Bidding (Using Revenue signals) Vs the new test leveraging the new Customer Bidding (using predictive LTV signals)

The A/B test has been active for 6 months.

“Thanks to optimizing towards high LifeTime Value customer signals in DV360 rather than just transaction value, we are able to truly align marketing campaigns with our internal goal of acquiring high LTV customers”

Carrefour Spain

The Results

Carrefour implemented predictive LTV signals in DV360 and after an A/B test that lasted 6 months, these were the results.

  • +45% New Customers were acquired or re-activated (non purchases in a year) in the test arm.
  • -34% Cost per acquiring or re-activating new customers .
  • +50% LTV ROAS was achieved for new customers in the test arm.